Beef’s Bracketology, February 11, 2020 Edition

I apologize again as the man had ol’ Beef workin’ on Monday again. Was fully intended on getting this out before midnight, so I could still say it was out on Monday – but falling asleep was a better option at the time.

Looking at this week’s bracket. No major changes at the top. Almost every bracketologist in the country has the same four teams on the #1 line. The #2 seeds are all pretty much a consensus also. This tells me that these eight teams have really separated themselves from the pack. That’s not to say they’re all safe from moving down a line or two in the coming weeks, but in THIS moment in time, safe.

Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences each pick up a bid from the American. Part of that was due to Tulsa losing their grip on the top spot and its automatic designation. And Tulsa’s probably even a bit of the radar for one of the “first eight out” spots.

The Power Seven stranglehold continues as they currently hold 32 of the 36 at-large spots. If you look though, it’s not all bad news. Northern Iowa has moved onto the #10 seed line, meaning losing their automatic spot would likely poach a bid for the Missouri Valley Conference. East Tennessee State, who’s being edged out by Furman in the Southern Conference, is right on the cusp of crashing the field as an at-large with a terrific 18-4 record. Decent computer numbers and a 4-3 record against Quadrants 1 & 2 have them in position. You can check those out in the SKiN Rankings, linked below. Utah State, from the Mountain West, is hovering just off the grid also. They need to be near perfect the rest of the way. A win over San Diego State would do them wonders.

For those unfamiliar with my SKiN Rankings, it’s a metric I’ve created using equal parts of the Sagarin Rating(S), KenPom Ranking(K) and the NCAA NET Rankings(N). I use these as a general guide to both selecting and seeding teams. As the season goes along and gets closer to the end of the season, I’ll start incorporating each tracked team’s conference record and record vs. Quadrant 1 & 2 teams. This early in the season, it’s way more information than I feel like tracking, so I pass on it. But as teams start weeding each other out come mid-February and the tracked list shrinks, it’s a little more manageable and much less tedious.

Multiple Bids By Conference

  • 10, Big Ten
  • 6, Southeastern
  • 6, Big East (up 1)
  • 5, Big XII
  • 5, Pacific Twelve
  • 4, Atlantic Coast (up 1)
  • 3, American (down 2)
  • 3, West Coast
  • 3, Atlantic Ten

Last Four Teams In, With Byes

  • Arkansas, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Purdue

Last Four Teams in, Play-In Games

  • Wichita State, Virginia, Florida, Southern California

First Eight Teams Missing The Cut

  • East Tennessee State, Indiana, Alabama, Notre Dame, Memphis, Arizona State, Utah State, Minnesota

Link to Beef’s Bracket for February 11, 2020

Link to SKiN Rankings for February 11, 2020