Beef’s Bracketology, February 11, 2019 Edition

Beef's Bracketology

Monday is here and so is the newest bracketology. First, let’s look at the conference break down for the multi-bid leagues and Power Six conferences.

  • 9, Atlantic Coast [up 1 from last week]
  • 8, Big Ten
  • 8, Southeastern [down 1]
  • 7, Big XII
  • 4, Big East [up 1]
  • 3, American
  • 2, Atlantic Ten
  • 2, Mid-American
  • 2, Pacific Twelve [up 1]

The little guys took a beating this week, as the at-larges allocated to the Power Six conferences increased from 30 to 34 of the 36 at-larges spots available. And those other two would be in peril, actually. Bowling Green is not likely to hold off Buffalo for the Mid-American bid. Buffalo would be very comfortably in the field, even is this continued. Davidson is holding the Atlantic Ten automatic at the moment, but is probably a slight underdog to Virginia Commonwealth come the end of the season.

A few notes from this week…

  • As you’ll see when looking at the SKiN Rankings, each teams combined Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 records have been tabulated and recorded. For those not knowing what the Quadrant system is, don’t feel bad, most don’t. Only ultra nerd bracketologist types know these things. Basically, it takes the games played against each opponent. Depending on where that opponent sits in the current NCAA NET standings, the game is seen as a win or loss in these different divisions/quadrants. Quadrant 1 is the top and relates to home games against the top 25, neutral games against the top 40 and road games against the top 75. Quadrant 2 is a little lower than that and so on. There’s also Quadrants 3 and 4.
  • An amazing five teams currently hold automatic bids with below .500 records. Not sure, but that would have to be an NCAA Tournament record.

With that said, let’s look at those teams closest to the cut line.

Last four teams in with a bye:

  • Minnesota, Clemson, Alabama, Central Florida

Last four teams in, play-in:

  • Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, Arizona State, Temple

First eight teams, missing the cut:

  • Utah State, Oklahoma, Creighton, Florida, San Francisco, St. Mary’s, Toledo, Oregon

I had to create a new metric again this year. It’s still similar to what I’d created before with the RiSK Rankings. But since the NCAA decided to scrap the RPI as a major sorting and seeding component, I did too. So the Ken Pomeroy Efficiency Ratings are still part of my formula, as is the Jeff Sagarin Computer Ratings. The third component now is the NCAA’s NET Ranking Tool. So moving the letters around, my metric is now called SKiN. Again, the “i” is just added in there so the metric has an actual word for its identity.

The SKiN Ratings are derived from equal parts of each team’s Sagarin, KenPom and NCAA NET rankings. It’s not an end-all be-all, as far as selection or seeding goes. But I’m guessing that, like RiSK in the past, it should be a pretty solid indicator.

The SKiN Rankings only include the teams closest to qualifying for at-large bids or those in the immediate hunt for their conference’s automatic bid. At this point, these will just be the teams with the best records in each conference. Each conference will have at least their top two teams included. The SKiN Rankings will be linked below. Also linked will be a mock bracket of how those qualifying teams might look in a season’s end bracket, if the season were to end right now. So there’s no fortune telling here.

SKiN Rankings, February 11, 2019

Beef’s Bracket, February 11, 2019 Edition