Beef’s Bracketology – January 21, 2019 Edition

The newest NCAA basketball bracketology here. Probably going to wait two more weeks before we do another round, just a head’s up.

This week, we’ll look a little deeper at the bracket. First, let’s look at the conference break down.

  • 9, Big Ten
  • 8, Atlantic Coast
  • 7, Big XII
  • 7, Southeastern
  • 4, Big East
  • 3, American
  • 3, West Coast
  • 2, Mountain West
  • 2, Pacific Twelve

As you can see above, only the American, West Coast and Mountain West Conferences were able to pry at-large berths away from the “Power Six”. That means that only five of the thirty-six at-large bids are being absorbed by those “Power Six”. This is actually a pretty normal normal, as sad as it is.

With that said, let’s look at those teams closest to the cut line.

Last four teams in with a bye:

  • Texas, Syracuse, Butler, St. John’s

Last four teams in, play-in:

  • St. Mary’s, Arizona, San Francisco, Utah State

First eight teams, missing the cut:

  • Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Baylor, Clemson, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Toledo

When the next update comes out, most conferences will be close to the halfway point of their conference schedules. There will be a weekly update from there on.

Had to create a new metric again this year. It’s still similar to what I’d created before with the RiSK Rankings. But since the NCAA decided to scrap the RPI as a major sorting and seeding component, I did too. So the Ken Pomeroy Efficiency Ratings are still part of my formula, as is the Jeff Sagarin Computer Ratings. The third component now is the NCAA’s NET Ranking Tool. So moving the letters around, my metric is now called SKiN. Again, the “i” is just added in there so the metric has an actual word for its identity.

The SKiN Ratings are derived from equal parts of each team’s Sagarin, KenPom and NET rankings. It’s not an end-all be-all, as far as selection or seeding goes. But I’m guessing that, like RiSK in the past, it should be a pretty solid indicator.

The SKiN Rankings only include the teams closest to qualifying for at-large bids or those in the immediate hunt for their conference’s automatic bid. At this point, these will just be the teams with the best records in each conference. Each conference will have at least their top two teams included. The will be linked below. Also linked will be a mock bracket of how those qualifying teams might look in a season’s end bracket, if the season were to end right now. So there’s no fortune telling here.

SKiN Rankings – January 21, 2019

Beef’s Bracket – January 21, 2019