Season-End Massey Bracketology-Post Week 10

Hot Beef Take

Two weeks remain in the regular season. And much like two of the three weeks prior, this last week caused more distress and heartache for the computers and bracketologists. Luckily, I’m the best there is and anybody willing to go back and look at last year’s final predictions will see this as fact. At this point in the season, I’m not sweating the upsets because they happen every week and if the mayhem gets too hairy, we just shave last week and start over.

This will probably be the last bracketology in this form. Next week, I plan on doing a more in depth look at the playoff picture. I’ll have my normal weekly edition on College Sports Madness(http://www.collegesportsmadness.com). But then, hopefully, Monday evening or Tuesday morning, I will have my special Bracketology Bonus. That also will appear on College Sports Madness, but I will also link it here on the On Press Row page.

Disclaimer: Remember, for this exercise, I’m using the current Ken Massey computer ratings, more importantly the projections toward season’s end. With those records, I am putting together this exclusive FCS Bracketology for On Press Row. Only the contenders in each conference are listed, those teams being 5-6 or better overall. This doesn’t necessarily hit all the 5-6 teams in the one-bid, non-scholarship or minimal scholarship conferences.

Big Sky

  • Eastern Washington, 9-2 / 7-1 … automatic
  • UC-Davis, 9-2 / 7-1 … at-large
  • Idaho State, 8-3 / 7-1 … at-large
  • Weber State, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Montana State, 6-5 / 4-4
  • Montana, 6-5 / 4-4
  • Idaho, 5-6 / 4-4

Big South

  • Kennesaw State, 10-1 / 5-0 … automatic
  • Monmouth, 8-3 / 4-1
  • Campbell, 7-4 / 2-3

Colonial

  • Elon, 8-2 / 7-1 …automatic
  • James Madison, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Delaware, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Stony Brook, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Maine, 7-4 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Rhode Island, 6-5 / 4-4
  • Towson, 6-5 / 4-4
  • Villanova, 5-6 / 2-6

FCS Independent

  • North Dakota, 7-4 / xxx … at-large

Mid-Eastern

  • North Carolina A&T, 9-2 / 6-1 … at-large

Missouri Valley

  • North Dakota State, 11-0 / 8-0 … automatic
  • South Dakota State, 8-2 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Western Illinois, 7-4 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Northern Iowa, 7-4 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Illinois State, 7-4 / 4-4

Northeast

  • Sacred Heart, 8-3 / 6-0 … automatic
  • Central Connecticut State, 7-4 / 5-1
  • Duquesne, 6-5 / 3-3
  • Bryant, 6-5 / 3-3

Ohio Valley

  • Southeast Missouri State, 8-3 / 6-2 … automatic
  • Jacksonville State, 8-3 / 7-1
  • Austin Peay, 7-4 / 5-3
  • Murray State, 5-6 / 5-3
  • Eastern Kentucky, 6-5 / 4-3

Patriot

  • Colgate, 9-1 / 6-0 … automatic
  • Holy Cross, 5-6 / 5-1
  • Georgetown, 5-6 / 4-2

Pioneer

  • San Diego, 9-2 / 8-0 … automatic
  • Stetson, 9-1 / 7-1
  • Drake, 7-3 / 6-2
  • Dayton, 6-5 / 5-3

Southern

  • Samford, 7-4 / 6-2 … automatic
  • Wofford, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • East Tennessee State, 8-3 / 6-2 … at-large
  • Furman, 6-4 / 6-2
  • Chattanooga, 7-4 / 5-3

Southland

  • McNeese, 8-3 / 7-2 …automatic
  • Nicholls, 8-3 / 7-2 … at-large
  • Sam Houston State, 7-4 / 6-3
  • Incarnate Word, 5-6 / 5-3
  • Central Arkansas, 6-5 / 5-4
  • Abilene Christian, 6-5 / 5-4

Season’s End Massey Bracket-Post Week 10

The seedings, as the computer spit out the season’s final two weeks, seeded pretty smoothly. North Dakota State is the obvious #1, being undefeated, and Kennesaw State is the obvious #2, being undefeated against FCS competition and big wins against Monmouth and Jacksonville State to finish out. #3 and #4, honestly could have been flip-flopped between Elon and Eastern Washington. My guess is with resumes this close, The Committee would choose this set-up for more geographic semifinal pairings. UC-Davis has the best resume of anyone not in the top four and slots into #5, having lost a Week 11 game with Eastern Washington. A case could be made that the two Big Sky teams slot to 3-4 and Elon drops to #5, but let’s not split hairs just yet. South Dakota State gets the #6, barely, over Colgate. Colgate should be undefeated against a very sub-par schedule, where they should only have lost to FBS Army. Winning that season finale though could push them as high as #4. As it stands here, the overall strength of schedule get South Dakota State the nod. The #8 goes to Southeast Missouri State, would would be riding a seven game win streak into the playoffs. This was the once contentious seed, but no other team in the field had a 9-2 record, a conference championship and seven game winning streak.

For the at-large bids, all the major conference teams with 8-3 records receive bids, except for Monmouth and Jacksonville State. 7-4 teams, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa and Maine, all pulled bids by virtue of their 6-2 conference records in the Missouri Valley or Colonial. The very last bid was contested by eight teams; the aforementioned Monmouth and Jacksonville State, five 7-4 teams; Chattanooga, Illinois State, North Dakota, Sam Houston State and Eastern Kentucky, and Mid-Eastern runner-up; North Carolina A&T at 9-2.

Eastern Kentucky had two of their four losses to FBS teams, but also had two wins against the Pioneer League. Sam Houston State lost head-to-head against North Dakota, knocking them from consideration. Illinois State, despite having an FBS win over Colorado State, only finished 4-4 in conference and also had a lower class victory among their seven wins. North Dakota, playing a Big Sky schedule as an independent, didn’t beat anybody in the playoff field. Monmouth, lost their only true test of the season to Kennesaw State and their four non-conference wins were over teams that were a combined 16-27. Pretty soft. Jacksonville State lost head-to-head to North Carolina A&T. That left Chattanooga and North Carolina A&T for the last bid. Chattanooga had no bad losses and one good win over Samford. North Carolina A&T had two bad losses, but two good wins over Jacksonville State and FBS East Carolina. Considering Chattanooga lost to their FBS opponent and North Carolina A&T beat theirs, the final bid went to North Carolina A&T by the slimmest of margins.