2017 Ken Massey Season Projections

Hot Beef Take

With the football officially kicking off its traditional opening weekend last night, it’s time to see what the Ken Massey Ratings project for the upcoming season.  His ratings, like most, get better as the season moves along, but can also be used as a projection tool.  Of course, an upset here or there will completely change the outcome of many other variables.  One happened last night, when Tennessee State upset FBS Georgia State.  The domino effect will take place upon his next update.  Still, these projections and numbers were taken before the season began.  Below are ONLY the main contenders from each automatic FCS bid conference that finished the projections with a better than .500 record.  A team with a ‘y’ next to their name is considered to have that conference’s automatic bid.  A team with an ‘x’ next to their name is considered to be one of the fourteen at-large teams.  Behind each tam is their overall record and conference record by the Massey Projections.

Big Sky

  • y – Eastern Washington, 9-2 / 8-0
  • x – Montana, 9-2 / 7-1
  • x – Southern Utah, 8-3 / 7-1
  • Cal Poly, 7-4 / 7-1
  • North Dakota, 6-5 / 5-3

Big South

  • y – Charleston Southern, 10-1 / 5-0
  • Kennesaw State, 7-4 / 3-2

Colonial

  • y – James Madison, 11-0 / 8-0
  • x – Villanova, 9-2 / 7-1
  • x – New Hampshire, 9-2 / 7-1
  • x – Richmond, 8-3 / 6-2
  • x – Albany, 7-4 / 5-3

Missouri Valley

  • y – North Dakota State, 11-0 / 8-0
  • x – Youngstown State, 9-2 / 7-1
  • x – South Dakota State, 9-2 / 6-2
  • x – Illinois State, 8-3 / 5-3
  • x – Northern Iowa, 7-4 / 5-3
  • Western Illinois, 6-5 / 5-3

Northeast

  • y – Duquesne, 9-2 / 6-0
  • St. Francis, 9-2 / 5-1

Ohio Valley

  • y – Jacksonville State, 10-1 / 8-0
  • Tennessee-Martin, 8-3 / 7-1
  • Eastern Illinois, 6-5 / 6-2

Patriot

  • y – Lehigh, 10-1 / 6-0
  • x – Colgate, 8-3 / 5-1
  • Fordham, 7-4 / 4-2

Pioneer

  • y – San Diego, 10-1 / 8-0
  • Dayton, 8-3 / 7-1
  • Drake, 7-4 / 6-2

Southern

  • y – Wofford, 10-1 / 8-0
  • x – Chattanooga, 8-3 / 7-1
  • The Citadel, 8-3 / 6-2
  • Samford, 7-4 / 5-3

Southland

  • y – Central Arkansas, 10-1 / 9-0
  • x – Sam Houston State, 10-1 / 8-1
  • x – McNeese, 10-1 / 8-1
  • Nicholls, 8-3 / 7-2

Given these results, the likely top eight national seed, receiving byes in the first round of the playoffs would be:

  1. James Madison
  2. North Dakota State
  3. Jacksonville State
  4. Wofford
  5. Central Arkansas
  6. Youngstown State
  7. Eastern Washington
  8. Charleston Southern

The eight first round match-ups would probably settle like this:

  • Albany @ Lehigh
  • Colgate @ New Hampshire
  • Duquesne @ Villanova
  • McNeese @ Sam Houston State
  • Northern Iowa @ Illinois State
  • Richmond @ Chattanooga
  • San Diego @ Montana
  • Southern Utah @ South Dakota State